Near the trough?

Sorry for the poor resolution(click on it for a clearer solution). Just happen to see this interesting article, so crop out to share.

Basically all four indicators showed that we are near the "bottom", comparing to previous recessions/down-cycles.

But I personally dun really dont buy this story.
Metric 1 shows the average time STI is in a "bear"market. Given every recession is special in nature, we should not "anchor" to the past and make such future projections. Using 97/98 the Asian Financial Crisis period, it lasted an average of 81 weeks. But the nature of the current recession and then were entirely different! AFC was all about Asia's banks. Now the banking failure system has spread everywhere. No one is spared in this onslaught.

Metric 2,3 and 4 shares the idea of 1. Its always good to learn from history, but we should never underestimate the present situation and make future projections from the past. No one knows if Citibank is gonna collapsed tommorow.

But Im not saying a recovery is not coming. Just that indicators are still very bad as Ive been reading them. Hence, I am proposing that the economy will not recover until

1) Global financial institutes stabilize first. With regained stability and healthy credit flow, then business will start recovering. But given the rotten state of US and Europe banks, its not happening any soon. Too much junks in these banks' balance sheet.

2) Overall recovery in US. Indicators in US still shows uber bearish signs like rising and persistent unemployment claims ( means stubborn rising unemployment ), falling house price index ( further erosion of home value ) etc.. Unless these main indiciators start to tell otherwise, the world's economy is likely to be stagnant.

3) China's 4trillion yuan stimulus. Like what Ive mentioned previously, unlessly the "pump-priming" happens effectively, SG's recovery is not going to happen. Given complex relationships and systems in China's overall framework ( fiscal, legal, property, banking, politics, everything ), the 4t spending is unlikely to be effective. To drive it simple, the money meant to boost their economy (which eventuallys boost ours) will eventually end at the wrong hands.

P.S: Metric 3 shows the sharpest contraction in SG's GDP since independence. Whats next?